AI adoption and mid-sized firm productivity

Research conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business (Cebr) for HSBC shows that AI adoption could unlock £105bn in additional revenue for UK mid-sized firms¹ by 2030.

The study used forecasting and economic modelling to establish that AI is fast becoming a dividing line in the UK economy, separating firms that are accelerating ahead of those at risk of standing still.

There are around 35,000 mid-sized businesses in the UK, companies with annual turnover between £15 million and £300 million. Often described as the ‘engine room’ of the economy, they combine the investment strength of large firms with the agility of smaller ones, giving them a productive edge. In 2025, mid-sized firms generated 23% more value per employee than the wider economy.

Two years ago, just over a third (35%) of mid-sized firms were using AI in some form. By the end of 2025, that figure had climbed to 55%, reflecting the mainstreaming of large language models, advanced analytics and workflow automation.

The research identifies a clear divide between firms experimenting with AI to draft emails or summarise documents and those embedding it into core operations.

Around 24% of mid-sized firms are described as ‘productive adopters’ – businesses integrating AI into forecasting, reporting, supply chain management and customer engagement, in a way that materially transforms performance. The research highlights a relatively steep increase in this rate over the next five years with the share rising to 65% by 2030 and 93% by 2040.

The research indicates that firms adopting AI in a sustained and integrated way increase revenue per employee by around 4% on average.

For a mid-sized company of average size, ‘productive adoption’ can expect to generate £4.5m in revenue, alongside £1.3m in additional economic value compared with a similar firm that does not adopt the technology within four years.

More than 2,700 mid-sized businesses began what the report describes as ‘productive adoption’ in 2025 alone. Collectively, that cohort is expected to generate £30 billion in additional revenue over the next four years, based on the modelled productivity uplift and projected firm growth.

Continued uptake of AI - combined with the estimated productivity effect - could add £105 billion in revenue and £31 billion in additional economic output by 2030. After that, gains continue, but at a steadier pace as adoption becomes widespread across the mid-market. Looking further ahead, AI-driven productivity improvements among mid-sized firms could generate more than half a trillion pounds in additional turnover by 2050.