Lean times for the food industry?

Weight-loss drugs aren’t just reshaping our bodies: they have the potential to transform society. Industry – especially the food and drink sector – needs to adapt to this new world.

This is the view of many public health experts, including Professor Susan Jebb OBE, Professor of Diet and Population Health at the University of Oxford and Chair of the Food Standards Agency. Prof Jebb addressed the industry when HSBC UK recently sponsored the 25th City Food and Drink Lecture at the Guildhall, London.

Prof Jebb’s vision ranged far wider than weight-loss jabs. She issued a broad challenge to the industry for a reset of the food system that would prioritise health as well as economic growth. But inevitably, the role of these drugs featured heavily, as they do in the national conversation.

Many of us know someone who is taking GLP-1s (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists). Around 1.6m¹ adults in the UK were doing so in mid-2025, and 3.3m² express an interest in trying the drugs.

Studies suggest that GLP-1s can change food preferences, heightening sensitivity to sweet tastes and reducing satisfaction from fatty foods. The drugs therefore offer the potential to reverse a stubborn public health burden at a time when almost 65% of UK adults are believed to be overweight or obese, increasing their risk of disease.

There are reasons for caution. The World Health Organisation emphasises that medication alone won’t reverse obesity. However, the chemistry of the drugs will change. With hundreds of new formats now in testing, cheaper versions in pill format are predicted to reach the UK this year.

In short, this is not a passing fad. Weight-loss drugs look set to disrupt the food industry, as users reduce both calorie intake and what they spend.

A Cornell University study found that within six months of starting GLP-1s, households reduced grocery spend by an average of 5.3%. The average GLP-1 user is wealthier, and a reduction in spend will have a greater impact on the food industry: the annual decrease among these households was 8.2%. Crisps and savoury snacks and sweet baked goods have seen the biggest sales slump.

There are obvious implications for the hospitality trade too – research by KAM Insight found that almost a third of people using GLP-1s were going out to eat and drink less often.

On the face of it, these sound like broadly negative trends for a sector where margins are already tight and growth in mature products is slow. But like every disruption, GLP-1s bring opportunities.

Already we’ve seen the emergence of new ranges of nutrient-dense ready meals in major supermarkets, and protein-rich options in fast food outlets. While some simply amount to smaller-sized portions, the more thoughtful are designed to offer essential nutrients for those with reduced appetites.

The loss of muscle often observed among GLP-1 users could be linked to the increased popularity of protein-rich products. The dairy industry has benefited, with yoghurt seeing 4.8% growth in 2025 and positioning itself well as a health food that naturally supports gut health.

The GLP-1 shift is not happening in isolation. It is converging with a wider awareness of food ingredients, manifested most obviously in concerns about ultra-processed foods. Younger generations, in particular, are highly informed and approaching their diets with new expectations.

Brands which are most willing to act strategically on these trends could gain advantage in this new world. That means going beyond offering the odd novel product, which might create a short-term sales spike, but rather embracing overall wellness as a driving purpose. With its strong track record of innovation, the food sector is well placed to find ways to achieve this while maintaining spend and margin levels.

As Prof Jebb said in her lecture, the industry has always tried to stay relevant amid changing diet trends. She called on business to focus on healthier products and “create a virtuous food cycle that’s a win for people, the planet and the economy”.

Forward-thinking businesses will already be considering how they reformulate not just their products but their business models to thrive in this new environment.

At HSBC UK, we are poised and ready to support businesses as they respond to this shift in the way we eat. From discussing business plans to suggesting the right funding solution, our experts can help. Talk to us today about your needs.